Whether you support Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton or one of the other candidates for President, this election has major implications for our industry on a number of different levels – from the top to the bottom of the ballot.
At the top of the ballot, one of the normal practices that occurs when there is a change in the political party controlling the Executive Branch is that rule-makings and regulatory initiatives in process when the new party comes to power are put on hold. This gives the new President an opportunity to put his appointees in charge and put his (the new President) stamp on Federal policy.
For our industry, the implications are obvious: the Obama Administration has been one of the most “regulatory-minded” in most peoples’ memories. Perhaps a Republican president would be inclined to lessen the heavy hand of government on ours and other industries, and shelve the two rules currently pending at the FDA. Perhaps not; but the Democrats’ approach to government is obvious.
Major changes to and/or repeal of the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) are incredibly remote as long as the Democrats control the White House. If the Congress were to pass legislation to repeal the Tan Tax, any Democratic president would surely veto any change to President Obama’s legacy legislative accomplishment. Therefore, if we are to ever be rid of the Tan Tax, the Dems can’t control the White House.
While a Trump victory in November doesn’t seem likely as we go to press, any number of things can still happen to reshuffle the deck, and as American baseball legend Yogi Berra first said, “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.”
The down-ballot implications for our industry are also very important. Control of the House of Representatives seems likely to stay with the Republican Party. However, displeasure with all presidential candidates or low turnout/voter apathy could sway close House races and even put control up for grabs. Control of the Senate is very much in play, with many Washington prognosticators predicting a Democrat takeover.
Here’s the math on the Senate: With Republicans currently holding a 54-46 majority, Dems need to pick up four Senate seats if they win the White House (because the VP gets to break a 50-50 tie), and they need five seats if they don’t.
There are three contests with a high possibility of a Democrat pickup: Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana.
There are three more states in which the outcome of the Senate contests has traditionally depended on which presidential candidate wins that state: Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and North Carolina. The GOP’s best pickup opportunity is Nevada. A Clinton sweep of the swing states could give control of the Senate to the Democrats, as well.
All of this highlights the importance of turnout and the need to vote in your local House and Senate races no matter how you feel about the candidates at the top of the two tickets.
