There is an old adage in Washington that says once the government starts giving things away, it is virtually impossible to take them back. In fact, in U.S. history, there is not a single example of a Federal entitlement program (of which Obamacare is one) ever being repealed. After seven years of Obamacare with approximately 20 million more Americans receiving government subsidized healthcare or enrolled in Medicaid, President Trump and the Republican majority on Capitol Hill have a formidable task in assembling a majority to repeal and replace the newest entitlement program.[gap height=”15″]
Many are not giving up hope, however! In early April, there was talk all over Capitol Hill and from the White House of the need to get the disagreeing factions of the Republican majority together and craft a bill sooner rather than later. The complicated budget reconciliation process where a simple majority is needed to pass legislation in the Senate (instead of the 60-vote super majority) is still in play and is a powerful tool that surely the Republicans will not waste.[gap height=”15″]
On the other hand, in the wake of the defeat in late March of the House Republicans’ bill to repeal and replace Obamacare, some Republican insiders think the best strategy is to move on to another of President Trump’s signature issues – comprehensive tax reform. Unfortunately, the inability to repeal Obamacare and the big savings that would have resulted only makes tax reform more difficult.[gap height=”15″]
One of the many virtues of the House Bill was the savings that would have been generated with the repeal of Obamacare – hundreds of billions over the next decade. If Repeal and Replace doesn’t happen first, the Congress will either have to cut taxes less or come up with additional revenue to please the deficit-hawks in Congress. Obviously, the Tan Tax is only one small piece of a very complicated puzzle.[gap height=”15″]
Regarding the two proposed rules pending at the FDA, no news is good news. The number of notices, proposed rules or final rules the FDA publishes in the Federal Register is a good gauge of overall activity at the agency. Since President Trump was elected, the volume of paper coming out of the FDA has dropped to a trickle.[gap height=”15″]
FDA staff are very tight-lipped, so there is no way to determine what exactly is going on with respect to specific proposals such as the two rules we are awaiting. It is safe to say that most regulatory initiatives seem to be on hold at least until the Senate confirms the new FDA commissioner.[gap height=”15″]
The confirmation hearing before the Senate Health Education, Labor and Pensions Committee for President Trump’s nominee for commissioner, Dr. Scott Gottlieb, was scheduled for the first week in April, but a full Senate vote had not been scheduled at the time of this writing. It is widely speculated he will be confirmed. Then, perhaps, we will learn a little more regarding the fate of these two rules.[gap height=”15″]
Obviously, the Tan Tax is only one small piece of a very complicated puzzle.
